Europe may loose PV leadership

The U.S. and China will soon pass Europe as the leading photovoltaics region. The factors determining these market dynamics will be price pressure and, in the case of the USA, political support for renewable energies, market researcher Frost & Sullivan finds.
 
MUNICH, Germany — The U.S. and China will soon pass Europe as the leading photovoltaics region. The factors determining these market dynamics will be price pressure and, in the case of the USA, political support for renewable energies, market researcher Frost & Sullivan finds.China will drive down the price for polysilicon and solar modules — with the effect that it will be able to strengthen its leading position as solar module supplier for global markets, a Frost & Sullivan study finds.

“When it comes to solar cells and modules, the Asian vendors are expanding aggressively,” said Frost & Sullivan Green Energy Research Manager Alina Bakhareva. “Low costs and increasingly technical expertise will help China to gain and increase its foothold in the global solar market. In particular European and Japanese competitors will suffer.”

Competition pressure will grow also from the side of the US which increasingly discover renewable energies as a future market. “The USA hitherto have used only a fraction of its huge potential,” Bakhareva stated. “They have all it takes to develop a strong and well diversified solar market.”

Europe clearly will lose market share, despite its advantages, the researcher said. When the competition heats up, the region can build on three important factors: A solid research landscape, competitive production and public incentives. These incentives however are decreasing, and the economy crisis with difficult access to capital will put smaller market participants such as retailers more under pressure than large projects. This will lead to what Frost & Sullivan calls a healthy slimming process. Nevertheless, the long-term trend towards renewable will remain unbroken, in particular towards solar energy.

In terms of local markets within Europe, Germany is seen to continue to have a strong position. Many large manufacturers currently are in the process of expanding their capacity or build new solar plants.

France, in contrast to Germany, tends to focus only on building-integrated PV applications since their operators are receiving the highest benefits due to the regulation situation. “While France achieved good growth rates over the past five years, we have the impression that the market would have developed better if politics would have treated all types of installations equally”, criticizes the Frost & Sullivan researcher.

While Spain also has become a major player in the solar game, public incentives have been reduced; Bakhareva estimates that the amount of new installations in 2009 will decline in comparison to 2008.

Italy and Greece are “sleeping giants”, the market sesearcher finds. The reason is that these countries have a high potential and attractive feed-in-tariffs. Administrative hurdles however keep the sleeping giants from unfolding their potential

 
 Source:
Christoph Hammerschmidt

Frost & Sullivan

Secretary Chu describes life in a carbon-constrained world

Teresa Hansen, Editor-in-chief Electric Light & Power

Dr. Steven Chu addressed industry executives at the annual Edison Electric Institute (EEI) conference and expo held in San Francisco. The secretary, who speaks like the scientist he is and not the political figures who in past years filled the secretary position, talked primarily about climate change. He thanked EEI for supporting the Waxman-Markey climate change bill, which passed the House of Representatives the following day, and emphasized that the industry’s outlook is not doom and gloom, but instead one of optimism and hope. Chu said that “sooner or later we will be living in a carbon constrained world.”

He listed five things that “we need to do to get where we need to be.”

1. Alignment of financial incentives “We need to break the business as usual model of making more money by selling more energy,” he said. Policies that provide utilities with return-on-investment incentives on things other than energy sales need to be developed. He said the DOE’s goal is to create demand response programs that will lower peak demand by 20 percent. Chu said this goal is one of the reasons the department is allotting $3.9 billion in stimulus funding for smart grid investment. He also said that the minimum grant amount is $200 million per grant and the office has made $615 million available for smart grid demonstration projects.

2. Energy efficiency Chu stressed that energy efficiency is important, announcing that the department was making $90 million available to California for state-wide energy programs. As an example of how effective energy efficiency can be, Chu said that efficiency gains made in household refrigerators has saved more energy than all the energy currently produced by non-hydro renewable energy sources in the United States. “Energy efficiency does matter,” Chu said.

3. Renewable energy Chu said that the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act is designed to double all non-hydro renewable energy generation in the next three years. He said that 20 percent of U.S. energy can be supplied by wind power. For renewables to meet their full potential, Chu said the nation’s grid must be modernized and the smart grid must be developed. He discussed the need for smart grid standards, saying that the National Institute of Standards and Technology has already identified more than 80 of these standards.

4. Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and nuclear energy The United States leads the world in coal reserves, so much so that little prospecting for new coal supplies is being done, Chu said. He said an international collaboration in CCS technologies is necessary and it needs to occur right away. “Even if the United States turns its back on coal, and I don’t believe it will, China and India will not,” Chu said. He said there is a worldwide goal to have 20 CCS pilot plants operating, which is one of the reasons the DOE is reviving FutureGen. Chu said it is also important to find technologies to retrofit existing plants with stack capture technology. As for nuclear power, Chu said that it is needed for carbon free baseload generation. He said the nuclear waste issue is solvable both scientifically and politically, but didn’t elaborate on how the DOE plans to handle it.

5. Transformational energy technologies Chu said that the DOE has always funded basic science and it provides an opportunity to enlist “knowledge horsepower” to solve the nation’s and world’s energy problems. Because buildings consume 40 percent of the energy produced in the United States, the department and industry should be looking for new ways to design them. He also said the new energy crops being developed for biofuel have much potential and make more sense than corn-based biofuels.

Chu talked about the DOE’s history of employing some of the world’s smartest scientists and researchers, including 30 Nobel Laureates (including Chu himself). He emphasized that the organization is ready and able to address the energy challenges our nation and world face. He also emphasized the urgency of addressing these challenges. “For the first time in human history, science has shown that human beings are altering the destination of our planet. The consequences of what we are doing today will not be fully realized for at least 100 years from now,” Chu said. “One of the ironies about climate change is that the ones who will be hurt the most are those yet to be born,” he added.

The United States should be making all of its electricity with renewable and carbon-free energy in 10 years

President Obama: “Now is the time for us to lead,”..”We cannot be afraid of the future. We cannot be prisoners to the past.” – those are nice words, BUT the bill which was approved today at the House of Representatives – under the White House pressure – is far from translating those nice words to reality. According to the CNN – the bill would reduce nationwide greenhouse gas emissions 17 percent by 2020 and 83 percent by 2050 through a so-called “cap-and-trade” program under which companies would buy and sell emissions credits.

This is not the required change!!!! Al Gore: The United States should be making all of its electricity with renewable and carbon-free energy in 10 years.

Solar energy companies call for better governmental policies

Representatives of America’s top solar energy companies visited Washington D.C. today, and representative of Israeli renewable energy organizations visited Jerusalem last week –  to call for new governmental policies to encourage the growth of a domestic solar energy industry that will promote economic growth, create jobs, and help meet greenhouse gas emissions goals.

It’s a shame that the US and Israel – scientific & technology leaders – are far behind many European countries in supporting energy, environmental and economic future. To make Israel, as well as the US, a 21st century solar power, we need smart and effective government policies that will help the private sector grow, thrive and create thousands of new jobs.

Although while in Israel only some rank and file people were meeting with the new and very open minded minister of national infrastructures, in the US representatives from several leading solar technology companies – Dow Chemicals, Abengoa Solar, BP Solar, Kyocera, National Semiconductor Corporation, Sanyo, SCHOTT Solar, Solar Power Industries, SolarWorld & Suniva, Inc. -met with key members of Congress and the Administration. They delivered to policy makers a Four Point Policy Plan that outlines the steps needed to encourage the adoption of solar energy technologies and support a new renewable energy manufacturing sector in America.

The plan calls to:

1)  Enact a broad legislative and regulatory package, designed to

encourage the rapid growth of a viable renewable energy industry and

encourage consumer adoption.

2) Increase investments in research and development to support innovation

in solar energy technologies.

3) Increase renewable energy-related education, training and job creation.

4) Establish the government as a leader in the utilization of clean

energy technologies.

Uzi Landau & Steven Chu - What are you waiting for?  

First solar plane set for 30 days round-the-world trip in 2011

Jean Cai, VP Deutche Bank (China)

The plane, covered in almost 12,000 photovoltaic cells, has a wingspan of 63.4 meters, or roughly that of Airbus A340, and only weighs 1,600 kg, equivalent to that of a motor car. It is reported to be able to reach a flying speed of 70 km per hour.

A model of the Solar Impulse plane is exhibited in Shenyang, capital of northeast China’s Liaoning Province, where the Deutschland-Chinesische Promenade program, part of a Sino-German friendly exchange event, is being staged.

The prototype is to be unveiled to media on June 26 at Dubendorf airfield next to Zurich, Switzerland.

The ongoing Deutschland-Chinesische Promenade program is part of the Germany and China Moving Ahead Together, an event jointly launched by Germany and China in 2007 under the theme of “sustainable urbanization”.

The whole event is scheduled to conclude during the Shanghai World Expo next year.

$13.5 billion of new private investment went into companies developing and scaling-up new technologies

 Total transaction value in the sustainable energy sector during 2008 – including corporate acquisitions, asset re-financings and private equity buy-outs – was $223 billion, an increase of 7% over 2007. But capital raised via the public stock markets fell 51% to $11.4 billion as clean energy share prices lost 61% of their value during 2008. Investment in the second half of 2008 was down 17% on the first half, and down 23% on the final six months of 2007, a trend that has continued into 2009.

On a regional basis, investment in Europe in 2008 was $49.7 billion, a rise of 2%, and in North America was $30.1 billion, a fall of 8%. These regions experienced a slow-down in the financing of new renewable energy projects due to the lack of project finance and the fact that tax credit-driven markets are mostly ineffective in a downturn.

With developed country market growth stalled (down 1.7%), developing countries surged forward 27% over 2007 to $36.6 billion, accounting for nearly one third of global investments. China led new investment in Asia, with an 18% increase over 2007 to $15.6 billion, mostly in new wind projects, and some biomass plants.

Investment in India grew 12% to $4.1 billion in 2008. Brazil accounted for almost all renewable energy investment in Latin America in 2008, with ethanol receiving $10.8 billion, up 76% from 2007. Africa achieved a modest increase by comparison, with investments up 10% to approximately $1.1 billion.

 Source: UNEP

“We have the largest monolithically interconnected CIGS module on polyimide”

 Dr. Prem Nath , Ascent Solar Sr. Vice President for Production Operations

 Ascent Solar Technologies a developer of CIGS thin-film PV announced 5 meter long flexible light weight module on a polyimide substrate with aperture area efficiency of 9.1%

Ascent Solar Technologies, Inc. is a developer of thin-film photovoltaic modules with substrate materials that can be more flexible and affordable than most traditional solar panels. Ascent Solar modules can be directly integrated into electronics, military and consumer portable power products, transportation systems, building elements, and space / near-space applications resulting in market differentiated solutions. Ascent Solar is headquartered in Thornton, Colo.

[Paula Mints, Navigant Consulting]:We have to take into consideration that thin films are facing difficult times, as are crystalline technologies. The assumed price advantage (because of assumed lower manufacturing costs) continues to evaporate. In this difficult competitive environment only First Solar, with the photovoltaic industry’s assumed lowest manufacturing costs, can compete. In particular, when First Solar acts as the system integrator and designer as it often does, its module advantage (installing at cost plus transfer costs) renders other technologies non-competitive.